Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
